June 13: Oil prices extended their biggest daily gain in months on Thursday, driven by escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East and fresh U.S. moves to safeguard personnel in the region, as concerns over supply disruptions outweighed bearish fundamentals.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed as much as 1.7% to $69.29, building on a 4.9% surge on Wednesday — its largest single-day rise since October. Brent crude settled just shy of the $70 mark.
The gains came after the Trump administration ordered non-essential U.S. embassy staff to depart Baghdad, and allowed military families to leave Middle Eastern bases, citing heightened security threats. The precautionary steps followed renewed threats by Iran to strike U.S. bases in the region should nuclear talks fail.
The UK Navy also issued a rare advisory to mariners, warning that mounting tensions could jeopardize shipping lanes in the region, which accounts for about one-third of global oil production.
“Iranian rhetoric has turned notably more hostile, and these threats are being substantiated by real-world developments,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “Unlike typical geopolitical rallies, this one is underpinned by the risk of Israeli military intervention, making traders hesitant to sell into the rally.”
The sharp rebound has pulled oil out of a narrow trading range that held for most of the past month. Still, futures remain down around 4% year-to-date, pressured by concerns that a U.S.–China trade war could erode demand, and expectations that a nuclear deal with Iran would release sanctioned barrels back into the market, adding to rising OPEC+ supply.
U.S. President Donald Trump, in an interview with the New York Post, said he is “less confident” about securing an agreement with Tehran on halting its nuclear programme. He separately claimed on social media that a trade deal with China was “done,” pending President Xi Jinping’s approval.
A monthly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) added to the uncertainty, projecting that global oil supply will exceed demand by 800,000 barrels per day in 2025 — the largest gap since the agency began issuing long-range forecasts. However, U.S. production is not expected to rise beyond current levels until late 2026, suggesting that low prices are curbing output growth.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected last week, with refineries operating at their highest throughput since December 2019 to meet strong summer fuel demand.Tools
