World, Mar 3: Can the world become both richer and more equal without pushing the planet beyond safe climate limits? A new study by economists including Thomas Piketty and Lucas Chancel argues that it is possible — but only under sweeping changes to how we work, consume, and define prosperity itself.Drawing on a newly built global database covering 57 countries and regions from 1970 to 2025, the research team modeled economic and climate scenarios through the end of the century. Their focus was bold: What would it take for all countries to converge to roughly €60,000 per person (in 2025 purchasing power terms) by 2100 — while still limiting global warming to 2°C?Their answer is sobering.Growth Alone Won’t Save the Climate.
The researchers found that simply transitioning to renewable energy, while essential, is not enough to keep warming within the internationally agreed target under the Paris Agreement.If the world follows a “productivist” model — pursuing high incomes without major changes to consumption patterns and work structures — global temperatures could exceed 4°C by 2100. Even scenarios with declining inequality but without deep structural reform overshoot climate goals.The central conclusion: economic growth must look very different from the 20th-century model.A Different Kind of ProsperityIn what they call a “Sustainable Convergence” pathway, countries achieve income equality by 2100 while staying just within the 2°C threshold. But this requires strict conditions:Rapid decarbonization of energy systems worldwide.
A dramatic shift in economic structure, with more activity in low-carbon “immaterial” sectors such as education, healthcare, culture, and digital services.A sharp reduction in working hours — roughly halving average global annual hours worked.Major changes in food systems, including large reductions in red meat consumption and deforestation.In this scenario, prosperity is not measured solely by material output. Leisure time, improved public services, and environmental stability become core components of well-being.“Structural composition matters as much as GDP,” the authors argue. A world with higher incomes but focused on care, knowledge, and low-carbon services could generate less long-term warming than a lower-income world locked into carbon-intensive production.Redefining Well-Being
The study challenges traditional economic thinking that treats shifts toward service sectors as automatic byproducts of development. Instead, the researchers treat structural transformation as a central climate policy lever.The Sustainable Convergence pathway, they say, improves comprehensive well-being across regions compared with high-growth, high-emissions alternatives. People work fewer hours, consume less resource-intensive goods, and benefit from expanded public services — while avoiding the worst climate damages.But achieving this would require profound political and social change.The Price Tag — and Who PaysThe transition would demand massive investment: an estimated 10–12% of global GDP annually between 2030 and 2060. Financing would need to come largely from the world’s wealthiest individuals and countries, implying major tax reforms and international coordination.The study suggests that global convergence — narrowing the gap between rich and poor nations — is compatible with planetary stability, but only if accompanied by a rethinking of wealth itself.A Narrow WindowAs climate impacts intensify and inequality remains stark, the findings land at a critical moment.
The path outlined is technically feasible, the authors argue, but politically demanding.The choice facing governments and societies is stark: continue pursuing growth in its current form and risk severe climate disruption, or embrace a model that redistributes income, reduces working time, and prioritizes low-carbon sectors.The question is no longer whether the world can become richer. It is whether it can redefine what “rich” means — before the climate defines the limits for us.
