Washington, June 26: A preliminary classified U.S. intelligence assessment has concluded that recent American and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities delayed Tehran’s nuclear program by less than six months, falling short of expectations set by President Donald Trump and senior officials, according to sources familiar with the findings.
The report, prepared by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), found that while entrances to two of the three targeted facilities—Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan—were sealed, the underground structures remained largely intact. Natanz sustained the most significant damage, while Fordo and Isfahan were moderately affected.
Prior to the strikes, U.S. intelligence believed Iran could produce a nuclear weapon within three months if it chose to. The updated estimate suggests the attacks have pushed that timeline back only by a few additional months.
Despite President Trump’s assertion that the bombing campaign had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, the DIA report states that much of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile was relocated before the strikes, with little nuclear material destroyed. Intelligence officials also suspect that some stockpiles may have been moved to covert facilities.
Military officials said B-2 bombers dropped 12 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs—so-called “bunker busters”—on Fordo, one of Iran’s most fortified nuclear sites, buried more than 250 feet beneath a mountain. While six entry craters were observed, the assessment indicates further strikes would have been required to destroy the facility entirely.
In contrast to Trump’s claims, General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was more measured. “This operation was designed to severely degrade Iran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure,” he said on Sunday, adding that final battle damage assessments were still pending.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, however, reiterated the administration’s position. “Our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons,” he said in a statement.
Israeli officials, who conducted parallel strikes, also voiced doubts about the full effectiveness of the operation, citing evidence that underground sections of Fordo were not destroyed. Intelligence assessments shared by Israeli defense sources suggested Iran retains the capability to reconstitute its program quickly if it chooses to do so.
Congress was scheduled to be briefed on the strike this week, but the sessions were delayed. Lawmakers are now expected to receive updates later this week, with Senate and House briefings set for Thursday and Friday, respectively.
White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt criticized the report’s conclusions, calling them “flat-out wrong” and suggesting the leak was intended to discredit the mission and the president. “Everyone knows what happens when you drop 14 30,000-pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration,” she said.
Despite conflicting interpretations, current and former military officials acknowledged that such operations carry inherent uncertainty. “Everything can go as planned, but there are still other factors,” said Gen. Joseph Votel, former commander of U.S. Central Command.
U.S. intelligence agencies say Iran has not yet made a decision to build a nuclear weapon, but has retained sufficient material and infrastructure to do so rapidly if it proceeds.
