New Delhi, Sept 2: Sharp increases in the prices of key minerals, particularly crude petroleum, natural gas and metal ores, contributed significantly to the difference between real and nominal Gross Value Added (GVA) growth in India’s mining and quarrying sector during the first quarter of the 2026-27 financial year, according to the official explanation.
The data indicated substantial price increases across several mining-related categories during April, May and June 2026. The rise was particularly pronounced in crude petroleum and natural gas, while metal ore prices also recorded strong growth.
Nominal, or current-price, GVA growth in the mining and quarrying sector stood at 22.3 per cent during the April-June quarter of 2026-27.Officials said the difference between real and nominal GVA growth was primarily linked to changes in mineral prices and should not be interpreted as an inconsistency between the two estimates.
Real GVA, measured at constant prices, is intended to reflect changes in the volume of economic activity after removing the effect of price movements. Nominal GVA, calculated at current prices, captures both changes in production and changes in market prices.
The official clarification also addressed questions over the relatively large statistical discrepancy in GDP estimates during the first quarter.The discrepancy represents a statistical balancing item arising from differences between GDP estimates compiled using the production and expenditure approaches.
Officials said changes in the discrepancy alone should not be treated as evidence that the reported GDP estimate is either understated or overstated.The first-quarter GDP estimates for 2026-27 are based on information currently available and may be revised as more comprehensive and updated data is received.
Officials said future revisions could affect estimates calculated through both the production and expenditure approaches, and the statistical discrepancy could also change accordingly.
However, they said it was not possible to predict in advance whether future revisions would necessarily increase GDP or by what amount. The direction and scale of any revision would depend on changes in the underlying data and estimates rather than on a mechanical adjustment of the statistical discrepancy.
The government expects the discrepancy to narrow significantly or disappear in the final current-price estimates as more complete data becomes available, a pattern seen in the final estimates for 2022-23 and 2023-24.
The clarification underlines that price movements and statistical differences between different methods of estimating economic output are important factors in interpreting quarterly GDP and GVA data.
