Macau, Jan 20: Growth in Macau’s casino industry is expected to diverge sharply in 2026, with mass-market gambling accelerating while the once-lucrative VIP segment slows dramatically, according to a note from Jefferies Hong Kong Ltd.
Jefferies said year-on-year growth in mass-market gross gaming revenue (GGR) is forecast to rise to 6.6% in 2026, compared with an estimated 4.3% in 2025, while VIP GGR growth is seen decelerating to 2.0% from 24.1% over the same period.
That would put mass-market GGR in 2026 at just over MOP191.26 billion ($23.82 billion), while VIP GGR would total slightly more than MOP69.34 billion, the brokerage said.
The outlook contrasts with recent signs of strength among high-value players. Citigroup reported a 72.3% year-on-year increase in observed betting volume by so-called “whales” in Macau, based on its January table survey.
Still, earnings pressure remains a concern. JP Morgan recently cut its 2026 Macau EBITDA forecast, citing an adverse play mix that includes lower-margin super-premium and premium play, as well as rising operating costs.
Macau government data showed VIP baccarat GGR rose about 20% sequentially in the fourth quarter, lifting the segment’s share of total GGR by 3.7 percentage points to 30.7%.
Jefferies said Macau’s casino operators likely saw an improvement in profitability in the fourth quarter compared with the third, which was disrupted by typhoons. That improvement, however, was partially offset by intensifying competition and higher incentives offered by operators such as Sands China Ltd and Wynn Macau Ltd.
“We expect improvement versus third-quarter 2025, which was impacted by two typhoons, though partially offset by rising competition as Sands China and Wynn Macau stepped up incentives in this quarter,” Jefferies analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei wrote.
For the fourth quarter, Jefferies expects MGM China Holdings Ltd to gain 0.7 percentage points of market share to 16.5%, while Wynn Macau is seen losing 1.0 percentage point to 12.2% and SJM Holdings Ltd shedding 1.2 percentage points to 10.7%.
Mass-market leaders Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd are expected to have benefited from strong visitor traffic during National Golden Week in October and the National Games of China in November. Jefferies estimates Sands China’s fourth-quarter market share at 24.4%, up 0.5 percentage points, and Galaxy Entertainment’s at 22.1%, up 1.7 percentage points.
