World, Feb 27: Artificial intelligence could raise global productivity by as much as 15% over the next decade, offering a powerful lift to economic growth — but the benefits may come with sharp social and financial trade-offs, according to new research from Moody’s Ratings.In a series of reports examining AI’s macroeconomic and corporate impact, the credit rating agency described the technology as a transformative force that is already reshaping industries, labor markets and investment flows. While AI-driven automation and efficiency gains could deliver double-digit output growth worldwide, Moody’s cautioned that the rewards will not be evenly shared.Growth Engine for Advanced EconomiesMoody’s analysts expect AI adoption to accelerate productivity, particularly in advanced economies with strong digital infrastructure, deep capital markets and highly skilled workforces.Sectors such as technology, finance, pharmaceuticals and professional services are positioned to capture early gains, as AI tools streamline administrative processes, improve data analysis and enhance decision-making. Companies that integrate AI effectively could see stronger margins, improved competitiveness and, potentially, more resilient credit profiles.For governments seeking growth in a slowing global economy, the prospect of a 15% productivity uplift represents a significant tailwind.A Risk of Wider InequalityHowever, the reports warn that AI’s benefits may widen the gap between richer and poorer nations. Advanced economies are likely to attract the bulk of AI-related investment, while emerging markets could struggle with limited digital infrastructure, weaker education systems and lower capital availability.
That divergence, Moody’s suggests, risks deepening global income disparities and creating new economic fault lines between countries able to harness AI and those left behind.White-Collar Jobs in the CrosshairsThe impact on employment could prove equally disruptive. Unlike previous waves of automation that primarily affected manual labor, AI is particularly effective at performing cognitive and administrative tasks. This shift places many white-collar roles — including clerical, analytical and back-office positions — at greater risk.While AI is expected to generate new roles in technology development, data management and oversight, the transition may be uneven. Without large-scale reskilling and education efforts, unemployment or wage inequality could rise during the adjustment period.Moody’s emphasized that the speed of workforce adaptation will be a critical factor in determining whether AI’s long-term gains outweigh its short-term disruptions.Infrastructure Pressures and Energy DemandThe rapid expansion of AI systems also poses infrastructure challenges. Training and deploying large-scale models requires vast computing power and significant electricity consumption. That demand could strain energy grids and accelerate investment in data centers, semiconductors and power generation.
Utilities and chip manufacturers may benefit from rising demand, but energy-intensive industries could face higher operating costs as competition for power increases.Credit Winners and LosersFrom a credit perspective, the agency noted that AI will likely create clear corporate winners and losers.Companies that successfully incorporate AI into their operations could strengthen profitability and market share, improving their financial standing. In contrast, firms that lag behind technologically may see mounting competitive pressure and potential credit rating risks.Governments, meanwhile, face complex policy choices. Investments in digital infrastructure, workforce retraining and regulatory frameworks will shape how effectively economies adapt. Policymakers must also balance innovation with safeguards addressing privacy, cybersecurity and labor protections.A Near-Term Economic ForceTaken together, the findings underscore that AI is no longer a distant technological concept. It is emerging as a near-term macroeconomic force capable of reshaping productivity, global competitiveness and credit risk.Moody’s conclusion is measured but clear: the scale of AI’s economic impact will depend less on the technology’s raw capability and more on how quickly institutions, businesses and workers adjust to its arrival.In other words, the future of AI-driven growth may hinge not just on algorithms — but on adaptation.
