New Delhi, March 26 – The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could have secured 14 additional seats in the 2019 general election and six more in 2024 if Lok Sabha constituencies had been redrawn based on the 2011 Census, an analysis of electoral data suggests.
The study highlights how delimitation, which is constitutionally mandated to take place after the first Census post-2026, could shift parliamentary strength in favor of northern and central Indian States, while reducing the representation of southern and some eastern States.
If constituencies were redrawn while keeping the total number of seats unchanged, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Karnataka would lose parliamentary representation, while Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh would gain additional seats.
- States losing seats:
- Tamil Nadu: 39 → 32
- Kerala: 20 → 15
- Karnataka: 28 → 27
- States gaining seats:
- Uttar Pradesh: 80 → 88
- Bihar: 40 → 46
- Rajasthan: 25 → 30
- Madhya Pradesh: 29 → 32
The analysis suggests that all the extra seats BJP stands to gain under such a delimitation process would come from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Jharkhand, and Haryana—States where the party already enjoys a strong presence. Such a shift could further reduce the influence of regional parties and diminish the role of southern States in national politics, reinforcing BJP’s dominance at the national level.
Had the 2019 election been held under these hypothetical boundaries, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would have secured a majority in the Lok Sabha solely from the northern and western States, without needing seats from the South, the analysis finds.
In 2019, NDA won 254 seats from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Haryana, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and Delhi—a number that would have increased to 277 under a 2011 Census-based delimitation, securing a comfortable majority.
The prospect of delimitation creating a geographical political divide has sparked concerns over national unity. With parliamentary strength shifting away from southern and eastern States, the Opposition may need to consolidate its presence in the Hindi heartland to remain competitive against the BJP. While the BJP has an incentive to proceed with delimitation as planned, political analysts suggest it may seek to reassure southern States and expand its footprint there before pushing forward with boundary revisions.
