Macau, Jan 10: Macau’s casino industry is poised for a strong start to 2026, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) expected to rise 19% year-on-year in January, helped by holiday demand and an easy comparison base, according to a note from Seaport Research.
Seaport Research analyst Vitaly Umansky said Macau GGR could reach about $2.71 billion this month, following a slower-than-expected performance in December.
“The month has started quite strong – possibly over MOP850 million [$106 million] per day in the 1–4 January holiday weekend,” Umansky wrote, adding that the January growth rate was “helped by an easy comparison” with the same period last year.
Macau’s casinos reported December GGR of MOP20.9 billion, up 14.8% year-on-year but down 0.9% from November, and below the 18% analyst consensus. According to Bloomberg, the December figures suggested the market “might have lost some steam.”
Despite the December moderation, full-year performance remained robust. Total Macau GGR for 2025 reached MOP247.4 billion, exceeding the MOP228 billion projection made by Macau Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai. The outcome was in line with a forecast issued in late 2024 by former chief executive Ho Iat Seng, who had described the estimate as “conservative.”
The 2025 result represents a recovery of 84.6% compared with the pre-pandemic level of MOP292.5 billion.
Looking ahead, Seaport Research expects GGR to grow by more than 14% in the first quarter, supported by the timing of the Chinese New Year holiday, which runs from Feb. 16 to Feb. 22 and includes a weekend that typically boosts visitation from mainland China.
“Macau remains a secular growth market, driven by an increasing wealth effect in China with high propensity to gamble and increasing travel spend,” Umansky said, forecasting 7% GGR growth for full-year 2026.
Other banks are more cautious but still constructive. Deutsche Bank expects Macau GGR to grow 5.8% this year to MOP261.8 billion, and also sees a strong first quarter, projecting 10.6% year-on-year growth.
Deutsche Bank analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian forecast 7%–8% growth in mass and slot revenues, a decline of about 5% in VIP revenue, and industry profit growth of 6%–7%.
