Washington, Mar 2: A small group of online gamblers reportedly made more than $1.2 million by correctly predicting the timing of US airstrikes against Iran, raising questions about whether some traders may have acted on advance knowledge of the military operation.Former US president Donald Trump announced that the United States and Israel had launched what he described as “major combat operations” targeting Iran. Israeli officials called the move a “pre-emptive strike,” while Trump later confirmed US participation.In the aftermath, regional tensions escalated sharply. Strikes were reported in Israel and parts of the Gulf, including Dubai, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. Iranian state media subsequently confirmed claims from US and Israeli sources that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had been killed.Trump described Khamenei as “one of the most evil people in history” and said Iranians protesting against the regime had what he called their “single greatest chance” to push for change.Big profits on prediction marketsWhile governments exchanged fire, some traders were watching markets.
On blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket, users can place bets on global events ranging from elections to entertainment outcomes. According to analytics firm Bubblemaps, six accounts placed concentrated bets that the US would strike Iran specifically on 28 February.Bubblemaps reported that most of the funds were deposited within 24 hours before the strikes were announced, with traders placing targeted wagers on that exact date. Collectively, the six accounts are said to have earned around $1.2 million.The timing has fuelled speculation online that some traders may have had prior knowledge of the operation.Insider concernsUsing insider information to place bets is prohibited under the rules of most regulated financial markets. However, enforcement in decentralised prediction markets can be complex and often depends on the platform’s own monitoring systems.Prediction market Kalshi also saw a surge in activity. Reports indicate that more than $36 million was wagered on whether there would be regime change in Iran.
Meanwhile, Polymarket recorded roughly $31 million in trades on whether Khamenei would remain in power by 31 March.Traders who bet that he would not remain in power stand to profit following confirmation of his death.Growing scrutiny of event-based bettingThe episode highlights the expanding influence of prediction markets, where geopolitical crises can quickly translate into high-stakes financial speculation.Supporters argue such platforms aggregate public sentiment and provide real-time signals about world events. Critics counter that they can incentivise opportunistic behaviour and potentially reward those with privileged information.As investigations into the military strikes continue, attention may also turn to whether regulators or platform operators will examine the suspiciously timed wagers.For now, the intersection of war and wagering has once again demonstrated how global events can reverberate far beyond the battlefield — reaching into the rapidly evolving world of digital betting markets.
