Tokyo, July 22: Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Monday vowed to remain in office after his ruling coalition suffered a bruising defeat in upper house elections, even as some within his own Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) began to question his leadership and opposition parties weighed a no-confidence motion.
The LDP and its junior partner Komeito secured 47 seats in Sunday’s vote—falling short of the 50 required to maintain a majority in the 248-seat chamber where half the seats were contested. The loss comes on the heels of last year’s lower house defeat, further weakening Ishiba’s political standing.
Speaking at a news conference, Ishiba said he would stay on to oversee crucial tariff negotiations with the United States and tackle surging consumer prices that have triggered voter backlash and rattled investors.
“I intend to fulfil my responsibilities on key issues, including trade and economic relief,” Ishiba said. “Now is not the time to abandon our post.”
However, pressure is mounting from within his party. Former Prime Minister Taro Aso, leader of a powerful LDP faction, reportedly said he “couldn’t accept” Ishiba remaining in charge, according to TV Asahi. Senior party leaders, including Aso, held closed-door meetings on Sunday to discuss potential leadership changes, local media reported.
Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDPJ), which returned 22 seats to finish second, said he is considering submitting a vote of no-confidence, claiming the election results show Ishiba’s administration has lost public trust.
Markets in Japan were closed on Monday for a public holiday, but the yen strengthened and Nikkei futures edged higher, suggesting investors had largely priced in the outcome. Still, uncertainty over Japan’s economic direction looms large.
Yields on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) rose sharply ahead of the ballot, as traders anticipated a weakened mandate for the ruling coalition’s fiscal restraint. Analysts warn Ishiba’s diminished clout could force concessions to opposition demands for tax cuts and expanded social spending, further straining Japan’s already-heavy public debt burden.
“The political situation has become fluid and could lead to a leadership change or coalition reshuffle in the coming months,” said Norihiro Yamaguchi, lead Japan economist at Oxford Economics. “But Ishiba is likely to stay on at least until the U.S. tariff talks conclude.”
Japan’s chief tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa departed for Washington early Monday for his eighth round of talks in three months, as tensions mount ahead of the expected August 1 deadline for new U.S. duties.
Adding to the ruling bloc’s woes, the far-right Sanseito party made the biggest gains of the night, adding 14 seats to its existing one. The party, launched during the pandemic and once dismissed as fringe, gained traction through a populist “Japanese First” message, opposition to immigration, and conspiracy-laden online campaigns.
Sanseito leader Sohei Kamiya, a former supermarket manager and English teacher, has cited Germany’s AfD and Reform UK as political models. Analysts say the results may signal the arrival of populist politics in Japan, which has so far resisted such movements seen in the West.
“The ruling party didn’t address any of our concerns—from inflation to foreign pressure,” said Hideaki Matsuda, a 60-year-old company manager in Tokyo. “People feel abandoned.” With Ishiba on the defensive and internal dissent growing, Japan’s political landscape appears headed for a volatile summer.
