Oslo, October 14: The Nobel Institute said on Saturday it suspects a potential leak ahead of Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado’s Nobel Peace Prize win was “highly likely” the result of espionage, after a sudden spike in betting odds suggested advance knowledge of the decision.
The odds for Machado, who was not listed among the favourites by experts or media, jumped from 3.75% to nearly 73% overnight on the prediction platform Polymarket between Thursday and Friday, just hours before the official announcement in Oslo.
“Highly likely it’s espionage,” Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Nobel Institute and secretary of the Nobel Committee, told Norway’s TV2 television. He said the institute would investigate and consider tightening security measures.
Espionage “could make it appear as if someone on the inside deliberately leaked information. That is not likely,” Harpviken added, noting that the Nobel Institute has long been a target for foreign and private intelligence gathering for political and economic reasons.
Nobel Committee chairman Jorgen Watne Frydnes, however, dismissed the possibility of an internal leak. “I don’t think there have ever been any leaks in the entire history of the prize. I can’t imagine that’s the case,” he told the NTB news agency.
Only a handful of people are privy to the final selection before the Peace Prize announcement, which traditionally draws global speculation. In past years, some names of nominees have appeared in Norwegian media, but there have been no confirmed leaks.
Machado, who has been barred from running in Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election, was awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize “for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy,” the committee said.
The Nobel decision drew criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump’s office, which said awarding the prize to Machado instead of Trump reflected “politics over peace.”
