VATICAN CITY, April 22 – As the Catholic Church prepares to enter conclave following the death of Pope Francis at 88, speculation is mounting over who might emerge as the next pontiff. While no clear frontrunner has emerged, several senior cardinals are considered papabili – or potential popes – reflecting the global reach and ideological spectrum of the 1.3 billion-member Church.
In keeping with an old Italian adage, “He who enters a conclave as a pope leaves it as a cardinal,” observers remain cautious. Nevertheless, the following candidates are attracting attention:
Jean-Marc Aveline
Archbishop of Marseille, Aveline is known for his affable nature and theological intellect. An Algerian-born son of Spanish immigrants, he has close ideological ties to Pope Francis, particularly on immigration and interfaith dialogue. If elected, he would be the first French Pope since the 14th century, although his limited Italian could prove a barrier.
Peter Erdo
A conservative canon law expert, Erdo is seen as a bridge between the Church’s progressive and traditional factions. He gained attention during the migrant crisis for opposing Francis’ open-door approach. Fluent in five languages, Erdo has strong links in Europe and Africa, and could offer a stabilising presence.
Mario Grech : Currently secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, Grech is a vocal proponent of Church reform. Once viewed as a conservative, his stance has evolved to embrace more inclusive policies. Though controversial among traditionalists, his prominence and diplomatic style may give him an edge.
Juan Jose Omella
A Francis ally with a background in missionary work, Omella is admired for his humility and focus on social justice. His role on the Pope’s Council of Cardinals underscores his influence. However, his association with Francis’ inner circle could work against him if cardinals seek change.
Pietro Parolin
As the Vatican’s Secretary of State, Parolin has long been at the heart of Church diplomacy. He is widely viewed as a compromise candidate with deep experience in global affairs, though some criticize his role in the Vatican’s deal with China. His Italian roots and low-key demeanor may resonate with cardinals seeking a return to tradition.
Luis Antonio Tagle
Often dubbed the “Asian Francis,” Tagle has a high international profile and deep pastoral experience. A former head of Caritas Internationalis, his leadership was questioned after a Vatican shake-up of the organization. Still, his charisma, multicultural appeal, and strong Vatican ties make him a serious contender.
Joseph Tobin
The Newark archbishop and former Redemptorist leader is known for his progressive views and handling of clergy abuse scandals. While the election of a U.S. Pope is considered unlikely, Tobin’s global experience and pastoral openness have earned him respect.
Peter Turkson
The first cardinal from Ghana, Turkson combines pastoral care with a strong track record on social issues. His past roles in the Vatican and active media presence keep him in the conversation, though some accuse him of subtle campaigning.
Matteo Zuppi
A leading figure in the Sant’Egidio peace movement, Zuppi is closely aligned with Francis and known for his diplomatic efforts in Ukraine. A grassroots-style bishop from Bologna, he would return the papacy to Italy and bring a strong pastoral focus. However, critics cite the slow progress on abuse accountability in Italy under his watch.
The conclave, expected to convene in coming weeks, remains a tightly sealed process where decisions often defy outside expectations. While speculation continues, the final decision will rest with the cardinals cloistered behind the locked doors of the Sistine Chapel.
