New Delhi, June 12: India’s population in 2025 is estimated at 1.46 billion, maintaining its position as the world’s most populous country, even as its fertility rate has declined below the replacement level, according to the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) latest report.
The State of World Population Report 2025, released on Tuesday, projects that India’s population will grow to approximately 1.7 billion before beginning to decline in around 40 years. China’s population, in contrast, is expected to stand at 1.41 billion this year.
The report highlights a significant demographic shift in India, with the country’s total fertility rate (TFR) now at 1.9—below the replacement threshold of 2.1 births per woman. The trend reflects a sharp drop from nearly five children per woman in 1970, driven by improved access to education and reproductive healthcare.
While the national average has declined, the report notes stark regional and social disparities. States such as Bihar, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh continue to report high fertility rates due to limited contraceptive access, inadequate health infrastructure, and persistent gender norms. In contrast, urbanised and better-off states like Delhi, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu show sustained low fertility, with many couples—especially educated middle-class women—delaying or forgoing childbirth due to economic pressures and work-life balance concerns.
UNFPA flagged the coexistence of “high fertility and low fertility duality” in India, calling it a major policy challenge. Despite progress, millions of Indians continue to face significant barriers in making free and informed decisions about their reproductive lives.
A survey conducted by UNFPA and YouGov across 14 countries, including India, found that 36% of Indian adults have experienced unintended pregnancies, while 30% reported unmet reproductive goals—either desiring more or fewer children than they had. Notably, 23% experienced both.
Financial constraints were cited as the most common barrier to reproductive freedom, with nearly four in ten respondents pointing to it as a key issue. Other factors included housing shortages (22%), job insecurity (21%), and inadequate childcare support (18%).
The report calls for a shift away from narratives of overpopulation or demographic collapse. “The real crisis is not underpopulation or overpopulation, but unmet reproductive goals,” the report said. “The answer lies in enhancing reproductive agency—ensuring people can make free, informed choices about sex, contraception, and parenthood.”
India’s demographic trajectory, the report concludes, should be guided by equitable policies that address both the needs of high-fertility regions and the challenges of low-fertility urban populations.
