OTTAWA, April 21 – Canada’s ruling Liberal Party has taken a decisive lead over the opposition Conservatives just days before the country heads to the polls, with Prime Minister Mark Carney credited for a late-stage surge in support, according to a new opinion poll released Monday.
The Nanos Research rolling poll showed the Liberals polling at 43.7% support, up sharply from previous weeks, while the Conservative Party stood at 36.3%. The left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) trailed at 10.7%. If replicated on election day, the results would hand the Liberals a clear majority in the 343-seat Parliament.
Carney, a former central banker with no prior political experience, replaced longtime party leader Justin Trudeau just over a month ago. Trudeau had faced mounting criticism over inflation, immigration pressures, and a worsening housing crisis.
Carney, 60, has since reoriented the party’s campaign, framing the election as a defining moment for Canada’s independence and economic direction, particularly in response to mounting tensions with the United States under President Donald Trump. He has urged Canadians to deliver a strong, majority mandate to insulate the country from external pressures.
“We need a government that has a strong mandate, a clear mandate. We need a government that has a plan that meets the moment,” Carney said at a campaign rally on Monday.
The Liberal platform includes C$130 billion in new spending over four years, with a projected deficit of C$62.3 billion in 2025-26, significantly higher than the C$42.2 billion forecast made in December. Carney has taken a hard line against Trump’s trade threats and recent comments suggesting the U.S. could attempt to annex Canada, calling for a major economic restructuring to reduce Canadian dependence on its southern neighbor.
Meanwhile, Elections Canada reported that more than two million Canadians had already voted during the first day of advance polling on Friday. Canada has approximately 28 million registered voters. Voter turnout, which once routinely exceeded 70%, has been on the decline since the 2000s. It stood at 62.3% in the 2021 federal election. The Nanos poll surveyed 1,289 voters between April 17 and 20 and has a margin of error of ±2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
